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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-01-06T08:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-06T08:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28508/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Source is likely a large dimming region in the vicinity of AR 3536 which begins around 2024-01-06T05:04Z (best observed in GOES SUVI 171/195 due to an SDO outage at the time) and spanned about E20->W10 and N03->S08, deflected largely south and east from the AR. A complex multi-peaked flare best observed in GOES SUVI 131 occurred with this event, prompting 4 separate mid-level C-class flares associated with this event. GOES SUVI 304 also observed some darker, filamentary material lifting off and deflecting to the SE. There is no clear evidence of CME arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-10T00:01Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-01-06T15:30Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 480
Longitude (deg): 024E
Latitude (deg): 14S
Half-angular width (deg): 17

Notes: Re-analysis of poss E centre disc filament eruption at 06:20, faint imagery on Lasco C2 and one difference frame STEREO COR2. Uses three separate analyses from three separate forecasters. Estimate may be adjusted should further imagery become available. MOSWOC Enlil is erroneously fast and early for CH89 fast wind influence, which may delay this CME.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 70.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-01-07T01:11Z

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